ABOUT

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This project investigates the causal effect of policies weakening labour unions on the rise of populist radical right (PRR) politicians and parties. By focusing on the 2017 Brazilian labour reform, this study will examine whether and how defunding unions diminishes their ability to mobilize workers and contribute to political campaigns, potentially leading to a shift in political preferences toward PRR candidates. In an era characterized by rising populism, gaining a deeper understanding of the impact of labour unions is crucial. This research will provide valuable insights into how labour unions influence voting patterns, political outcomes, and policy-making processes.

EXPECTED OUTCOMES

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The study anticipates that the defunding of labour unions will significantly reduce the vote share for left-wing parties, particularly in municipalities with historically high union density. This decline in left-wing support is expected to correlate with increased votes for PRR politicians, indicating that the weakening of unions undermines their ability to advocate for policies that mitigate social and economic inequality. The findings will underscore the role of unions in protecting workers’ interests and preserving democratic stability, particularly in the face of rising populism. 

HOW IT RELATES TO THE STONE CENTRE’S MISSION

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This research is related to one of the fundamental causes of wealth and income inequality: the distribution of political power in society. It is widely believed that the relative political power of firms vis-a-vis workers can affect electoral outcomes, policies, and inequality. However, we have scarce empirical evidence of how the political power of workers vis-a-vis firms can affect inequality. The labour reform implemented in Brazil in 2017 is a good setting to study these issues in a country where labour unions are important, and inequality is extremely significant.